horse property house for rent

if i can get started, just because i know robert has a lotof really amazing information. i got a sneak peak at his powerpoints. perks of being the coordinator. >> [laugh]>> so i just want to make sure he has enoughtime, he does have a class after this so i don't want him to be too lateto this next batch of students. so for those of you who don't know me,my name is erin harwood and i'm a staff coordinator and

also the person who is coordinatingall these staff seminar series. before we get to robert,i just want to give a little plug for our very last pod of the quarter,which will be on friday december 4th, which is the last friday of the quarter. and it will be from psychology, andshe'll be talking about relationships between children and pets, and then howdoes that influence their development. and then how does that play intothe cycle of abuse that you can see sometimes in some families andin some communities? so i'm excited about, everyone has sofar has been so amazing.

so i've learned something from everysingle one, and it's been really great. so i'm excited for this one, andi'm particularly excited too for robert's. when he first made the proposal to me, ithink it was before fall quarter started, and he and i hadn't even met face to face,i immediately was like, yes! [laugh] jen, who shares office space withme, she probably even heard me say that. this is such a cool idea. and so i was really excited tohave robert come today, and be able to share some information with us. and a little bit about the mathbehind all of this as well.

for horse racing and betting, andthen how exactly does the system for handicapping horse races work as well. i will turn it over to robert. [inaudible][laugh]. all right. >> all right.so, before i begin, i have to kind of plug, two of my students got second and third place in [inaudible]. so i'm pretty bad with [inaudible].

[laugh] just to be clear about that. [inaudible]. so i'm just going to save you the trouble. so just a tiny little bit. we'll be talking about [inaudible] horseraes, with lessons in the stock market, we need a little bit ofmedicine with our sugar today. make sure this is not that big for[inaudible]. that's [inaudible]. okay, is that better for [inaudible]?

so horse racing, right? i say the words, andi think we all feel a little skeeved out. we all kind of get a little ew. why do we talk aboutthis in the first place? and in general gambling as well. so gambling is actuallykind of the genesis of almost all of the probabilityin statistics. it started with the 17thcentury mathematician ardano. there's a lot of awesomecool stories nafta rules or

all these other great people. now later on, i noticed this, perdonis was the first to actually findwhat are called theoretical probabilities. now empirical bonds. and he did it mainly by this annotated. from there,pascale had some great back and forth, some letters that he sent toone-another to try and solve, basically, roulette, another kindof dice game as well. they really kind of tried tofigure out what's the mathematical

conflict>> have here. or however you want to say that name,also hits more as well. really talked about the gambling itself,okay. from these period modest beginnings,kind of put that idea some probability from gambling kind ofwhat else can we do with these? and from there it' went off, right? snowballed into a faust with robert gaussprints himself vessel in oregon and after that they're tryingto do this in barkof. if you donate kind of youknow probability this physics

you've heard these names before. all of this was generated basicallyby swarthy french people trying to comp each other out of money. so from very humble kindof skeevy beginnings, we get whole range of [inaudible] right? i also have friends horse racing. and you might also think about this. is the actual sport, cruelty to animals? there hasn't been [inaudible] past in thehistory of this happen i think if you were

to get rid of the whole thing, unfortunately, that would put a lot ofpeople out of work, out of business. this sport that we've had forcenturies would go away, essentially. but lets just forget all of it. so this is from,the ugly truth about horse racing, written by fernando cohen in the atlantic,march 2014. this is a recent article andbasically a response from peta, listing a reform about horse racing. and it is an issue,not that i would say it's not or anything.

however, this reform is on the way. anyone point out when the racing form? wednesday's edition, it's kind of about,not just past performances, as we what say, but also news as well. this guy from new yorkactually was found that he was his horses and he has got a lifetimeban you know, for what it's worth. so it's not that, you know,we're trying to avoid this issue. they do take it very seriously. and they're starting to do more.

with devotion for horserace integrity. [cough]they've kind of, right now i just want youto fill this form racing. paragraph at 115.really trying to make sure that the sport is fair, also it would be the first kindof national body to regulate doping and testing the horses as well as makingsure horse abuse doesn't happen. because quite frankly, these are beautifulmammals and they shouldn't be abused. so, if you want to know more about that,coalition for horse racing integrity, i make no bones about the good and the badhere, honestly since it is such a large

institution, so old right, and this goesback hundreds and hundreds of years, i feel like needs to happen i can'tjust let this whole thing go. so onto more kind of base concerns,right, am i going to tell you how to win? and like any good academic, i'm not going to answer that with a solid,definitive yes. i have to say no and qualify what i willbe sharing with you a little bit, right. so one rule, only one rule. i'll be talking about trends. these are some things i've noticed overkind of my few years of doing this.

i've also kind of picked up someleads from reading different books, listening to different columnists andas well. and then also some variables. right it's been kind of said inthe culture [inaudible] i think that each course in one race, even kind of takinginto account 100 different variables, we'll have an accurate model topredict what happens in the end. so obviously [inaudible] right,what we'll talk about today are the ones that i think have so, you might say okay well,gotta win, but is gambling worse?

obviously yes, it is very risky that's whyit's called gambling and not investing. [laugh] and quite frankly i don't know whywe talk to people given college students or administrators or college instructors,so none of us have any money. we gotta take that into>> [laugh] >> but from this idea that gambling is risky, i'm giving you the only rulewhen it comes to gambling, okay. that is you never bet with what'scalled scared money, right? you never bet with your rent money,you never bet with your insurance, you never bet with anything that youactually need for survival, right?

when you go to actually place betsassume that money is gone, okay? there is no get rich thing, there is no definitive system thatwill always win 100% of the time. you may lose all the time andyou have to be ready for that. there are services that will help youget out of gambling addiction as well, if that becomes a problem, i mean,you've got [inaudible] services. and unfortunately i didn't pull outthe [inaudible] application, but it's out there. so, why am i talking about this?

right. how did i get into this whole thing? so i went to a graduate school atthe city college of new york, online, in manhattan in harlem. and it was an awesomely great experience. i got there about july 2006. my then girlfriend,current wife was working in the city. we were living in jersey city atthe time and she would go into work and i would patiently go in with her.

and as lo and behold, right acrossthe street on 7th avenue and 37th street, 38th street was this thing. this otb.and so being a math private tutor [inaudible] i justwas very curious about this. what were these people doing here? what was this whole thing about? using numbers in this weird and funny way? i went in andyou can imagine what i saw, right? pretty bare bones, no real furnishings,migrants anywhere.

and the population was probably not whatit should have been using their money with that. people came from varied backgrounds,very different areas, it was not that great ofa little place to be in. but over time as it kind of went tothis and other locations as well. i came to realize that there's somethingkind of bigger going on, right? as with any committed endeavor,there's a culture associated with it. and over time i kind ofrealized the culture, right? the values and the rules that thisculture has reflects the mathematics

in a kind of funny and unique way. so i'll kind of take on that a lot forthroughout the presentation. what was great about going to differentoff track betting locations in new york city was that you wouldgo to a different location and the entire culture may change. the entire ethnic group of thatneighborhood would be represented in these off track betting locations. this one was the one right acrossthe street from rockefeller center. and for whatever reason,it was pretty much predominantly irish.

you would hear gaelic, you wouldhear varieties of different accents. and that was kind of a funny thing. you would go down tothe one in china town. and that would be an entirelydifferent portal right? as soon as the numbereight appeared anywhere, he would bet on that based on chinesenumerology and all this other stuff. you would go to the one where later onup in inwood, very top of manhattan, and you would go tothe george washington bridge terminal. and in that terminal would bea location that would be predominantly

puerto ricans and dominicans. and that was really just different, right. they had a whole differentway of all of this. in all of these there was commonalitieswhich i'll talk a lot more about. unfortunately the off trackbetting location closed in 2010. this is the city that never sleeps right,it just kind of keeps on changing and moving. it mainly went out of business becauseof how the funding was structured for education they were kind of giving moneyto, they were taking the money out of

operating expensesa non-profit which is crazy. who knows. anyway they actually closed down andin new york. talk about and belmont racetrack. this slide is a little hard to see i know,this is leonardo, this art from the year eo wilson, this is that location i was referringto before and i actually met this man. earl wilson, this is leonardois what's called his stupor. he would literally go around and as peoplewould throw down tickets he would grab

them and then check them to see ifthere was actually any money on that. this article describes that he makesabout, or he made $48,000 a year and worked hours about $100 to $300 a day. so there's something funny going on here,right? lots of money being changed hands. money being thrown on the floor forwhatever reason. what's happening here? so i really kind of tookmore interest in this. to help with the kind ofculture aspect of this,

i'm going to use one of my favoriteactors from law and order, dennis farina. he is just the embodiment of[inaudible] masculinity [inaudible]. he pulls bravado,that has good fashion sense. [laugh] he has all of this stuff,he is really of what new york is. all these contrasts, the push andpull of the city, but also very high mindedabout a lot of things. [inaudible] in no way knows [inaudible] >> [laugh]>> so, the fundamental kind of aspect that wehave to really realize is the gambling and

how this works is very differentthan gambling against the house. in the traditional sense ofgambling against the house, you are betting against the itself, right. and on average the casinosets up these games so that they always have a positive expectedreturn, you always have a negative, right. this is expected value, this is a need for kind of principle investment,investment general. let's compare that to whathappens at the track, okay so, betting overall doeshappen at the track itself.

a lot of places will dowhat's called telecasting. so they'll actually set up live feedsof the races in other locations and people at those locations can bet andmake bets on those races as well. when after getting back from portland,my wife and i went to portland, that from belmont stakes setting and you betit on that horse on the race from there. so you can do this pretty much at anyof these locations across the nation. so here you are at the track->> [laugh] >> and you are already betting against every one of us.

okay?this is a system called parimutuel betting. and so the psychology of this get's alittle interesting because you're not just betting against the house or a fixed odds,you're betting against other people with odds that are constantlychanging based on their bets. okay?so there's kind of some fun dynamics going on here. this kind of comes into,what's involved in making the bet. there's kind of three estimates here,right?

there's the actual making a bet itself,[inaudible], the horses, the information about the horses, andthen also the betting public right, and the psychology of what's happened. let's get to the easy stuff anyway, let's talk about how to make a bet,how does this whole thing work? so let's say for instance, we have thesethree horses, early speed, fast winner, and last chance. with these close positions, one, two,three, the traditional way of happening and this is the one horse,the two horse, and the three horse.

and what i'm kind ofpushing here is the win. so let's imagine all these peoplemaking bets on these horses to win. and this is cool, thinking the totalamount of money bet on this horse to win. so you can see here whichhorses did they bet? >> early steve [inaudible]>> early steve, right? they have the most money on him. and so, the fever kind of has someweird stuff going on with it. let's say for instance,that fever does win. so, what happens to that pool, right?

that thousand dollars is divided up. it's, what happens is they trackeach other, and they give about 15%. so we have now $803 leftto distribute to everyone. one. the remaining pool is divided byhow much was spent on that horse. so in this case $1.70 foreach dollar wagered, all right. and so people can make differentamount of bets on these horses, right. so if you made a dollar bet on earlyleading to win, you'd get back $1.70. all right, forreasons i'm not going to go into,

most win bets are based on a $2 debt. and so in this case you havegotten back that $3.40. and you can scale this all right? if you bet $100 on thisyou'll come back at $70. so, let's hear an example really quick. let's assume now wasfastrunner the favorite? no, in fact fastrunner wasthe least favorite, right? so, back each other only 50%, butnow we're dividing between less amount of money, so in total, you're going to beback $4.25 for each dollar you wager.

in this case.and again, you scale this thing up, right? for $2, it's. so, the question now comes, is,will you win much money with the favorite? no. it was just a few cents more, right? there's some terminologyhere we need to discuss. the favorite to win is called the chalk. it's called chalk because way back in theday you see here this gentleman, you know, erasing this big chalk board, withthe odds but what happened is the favorite

horse, his odds would be changed the mostand so it'd really be the chalk with dust and that's the same and people would sayi would just bet on the chalk, right. the favorite horse. [inaudible] so what does this mean for us? in general betting on the chalk isa relatively safe bet as we will win about a third of the time. there has been studies that show[inaudible] itself will pick the winner about a third of the time howeverthat payout is not all that great. this leaves us to our first trend,betting with the crowd,

produces your payoff, right. betting with everyone else, because if youthink about it, from the previous example. if the favor wins, you only havebasically, 500 minus the 50%, is split among everyone who won,is that $500 pool. but there's a smaller one right? the [inaudible] where you are gettingup $800 by [inaudible] time. >> so in general it's not a good idea to. [inaudible] says as a general rulelook down on people who [inaudible] at the top right?

the whole goal of the [inaudible]log is to bet a little, win a lot. the only way you can do that isby betting long shots, right? so this kind of the first instance,for me anyway, where it was clear that the culturewas really pushing the mathematics, it was kind of embedded in there, right? they would look down on you ifyou were ever caught [inaudible]. i remember one day i was atthe seventh avenue location and i was just trying stuff out, i can and thisone race i battled the chalk and it won. and i kept on getting this weirdfeeling and i looked to my side, and

there was older men. it was just very weird and they were very. >> [laugh]>> they did not like what i was doing in the least and it kind of showed thatthere was something else going on. andreas, yes,there are many many upper cuts. we'll talk mainly about these. we'll get into the otherones a little bit. there has been an increase in okay. linda will get beat out ifthat person makes first place.

a place that will pay up if a personwins first or second place. a show bet will pay up if the horsewins first, second, or third. so this is really important because peoplemisinterpret these bets all of the time. we'll do this example real quick. when placing show bets forthis we have furling speed, fast familiar last can the slope thoughand we're looking at the pools here. right?the wind pool, the place pool and the show pool. i'm not going to showthe actual calculations but

if you do this right the one force wind,it's the last chance for second. capacitor is third place. this is what the pay on sulphur weight. now in the parentheses indicatesthe actual value of what should happen, it's always rounded to the nearest fiveto zero cent, because that's kind of the. there's a technical term for it. i forgot it. but yeah, it'll always reduce down to the. so you see here, win, place, and show.

and in general this is how it looks. we'll see the example but early, if you had a dollar ticket,and obviously would be $1.85. place, $1.60. 2.05 for show. what's funny there? >> seems like joe is >> [inaudible]>> some of that math problem [inaudible] yes.

>> [laugh]>> yes there is something strange going on here right? with the $1 win method there'sonly one way to win with that. however, we only made $1.85 on our $1 win. $1 show method there is actually threeways to win right the horse came first second or third. this kind of leads to our first realmisconception that a lot of people have. they think that these bets are forthat specific race and not the ones above. right?this happens quite often and

this is actually an actualtechnical term in the stock market >> called arbitrage. arbitrage for investmentsare the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profitfrom a difference in the price. so if exactly what we're doing, right? we're not buying and selling this thingimmediately, what's actually happening is we have something from the same price,but different risk bluffs, right? different risk of not winning orwinning [inaudible] so whenever this thing happens, trend two.

win, place, and show pools should allbe proportional to each other, right? if a horse is a favorite to win,you should see their, you know, show pool being kindof the favorite, as well, right? because that's proportional. if it's not,then you get a situation like. like this, right? where that show poolwas really under that. so that shouldn't more of that. so this leads us to our trendtwo with the show pool,

under that as we saw onthe show pool in yeah? >> so the reason that the showpool was overvalued, or under bet, is the people doing the betting. >> exactly. >> some of the public did not realizewhat was going on, it's not [inaudible] >> no, no, no, no. we'll talk about the track'sinvolvement a little later on, but yet, that's kind of the core issue here,we're betting against other people, and their misconceptions of what these betsmay or may not [inaudible] so that's kind

of the core idea, we're betting againsteveryone else and their information. for this, does that answer the question? >> yes [inaudible]. >> this is kind of a you see a longshot being in the show pool, you may want to consider pushing that up,right? if everyone thinks it's going to winthird place, well potentially awesome, getting excited for and third or first,that's [inaudible] it's possible. are there more bets? yes exotics.

exotics are getting a littlebit more into the weed, so i'm not going to go too far into this. i'm going to focus on exacta and trifecta. exacta is exactly that, you're the firstand second course in that order. okay, so you're getting a little bitmore specific in what your bets are. there's the trifecta, first,second, and third place. there's also a super-fecta, first,second, third, and fourth place. these dollar bets and $0.10 bets arebasically kind of the average amount that you spend on those, andhow much they cost for each one of those.

however, just taking one of thesebets isn't really a good idea. so let's say we have a dollar exactly on1 and 3, 1 has to win first place and 3 has to win second place, andyou only have a single dollar to bet. however, it's this idea ofboxing these things in. boxing these things thinks as i don't useany of these horses in any order, right. so i'm betting not just on one three,but also thee and four, right. so here we have two dollar bets foryour dollar. and you vouch trying to get some more andmore involve right? what are the exact amounts on one two andthree?

would be six dollar amounts. right?so six dollar increments. and dollar trifecta on one, three,two would be just that order right? not lost [inaudible] status one,three- two, however, if we do decide to do that,trifecta box and 132 is $6 right? [inaudible] $6 [inaudible] doesthat make sense, a little bit? okay, good. can you guys do an exact dollars box on 1,2, 3, and 4? you thought you could.

i was talking to my math instructor, you're not respecting mathquestions in all this? [laugh] come on. >> it's full math. >> okay.[laugh] why is it? >> 4 times the percentage. >> she did it soquickly and so efficiently, mainly because there's a whole branch ofmath called combinatorics okay, peep this actual counting market and stuff is a hugepart of palbaline statistics, all right?

if you're interested in that please,please, please take statistics for any of those classes that we haveon offer because they're great. okay, if you can imagine this gets harrierwhen you add more four horses, right? dollar on five horses would be 60 bucks. on seven horses would be $210.00. at 10 cents per however,would only be $2.40. is this likely to happen, do you think? i don't think so, right? i mean you're looking forthe one, two, three,

and four horses to get first,second, third, and fourth, right? you're getting very specificin your prediction there. overall though, this is one more typical, [inaudible] kind of that in general,what we do is we say. one, three, zero [inaudible] forthe one, three [inaudible] win first. and then one, three,five versus the third, second to [inaudible] one,three, five, six to win third. and then we say b of all. so all address in that last one.

so we don't know, right? that's.[inaudible] i would really recommend, this is for future, when you kind of feel more confident andcomfortable with this stuff. this is not right away, all right? >> [laugh]>> don't try to do this. actually, please dobecause then [inaudible]. >> [laugh]>> so what do these things look like? this is from the recent an americanof one with the whole thing.

this is a typical, kind of a tilt screen. on the screen because, a is a nice colic. you can see here, in barrow 1,on a $2 bet, $7.80, right? place bet, show bet. and, this is probably whatit should look like, right? this proportional going down. on average, winning bets on a $2 bet,we're going to give this $2.10, and come back $20. on average earned, two dollars and

ten cents is the minimum that mustbe paid out on almost all cracks. sometimes what happens is that the amountspent on one course is more than all the other courses combined. so they have to instill this minimum so that we're actually nowlosing money [inaudible]. place bets,obviously going to go down a little bit. averaging, kind of level out to dollars,so that's [inaudible] $10. you can see here down below, $2 is thatone, $2 price jacked up super there. a lot more money right?

and on average, and when you start to win maybeconsiderably more on these other apps. these numbers that i regretfullycame up with what i kind of assume then in the past this averages eachtract of these piece of information when you buy their initial programs. this is from the fourthmeadows [inaudible] okay. [inaudible]the more specific your bet, the lower the odds.

but hopefully,the higher the payoff, right? but it all depends. it all depends on are youbetting with the chalk, or are you betting against the chalk? if you agree with that chalk. rich, okay. if you kind of looked at allthe variables and things, yeah, this horse is going to win. you'd use that with a few launch apps,right,

that will help kind of increaseyour payout hopefully. if you use don't use it in a right, because hopefully you'll beable to get everyone else. make sense? [noise] okay kind of right. this relates to a itnatural investing rate. risk and reward right? do we want to be more risky or do wewant to be less risky with your money? well you're less risky with your moneyyour reward vein is lower right?

and that happens as well, right? the more specific you are with your bets, the riskier they are andpotentially [inaudible]. this is from my friend warren buffett, risk comes from not knowingwhat you are doing. right now, you are at your riskiest,all right. so be very careful whenyou in a situation. >> [inaudible] again. >> are there even more bets?

yes. it just kind of getscrazier from here on out. these daily double, pick 3,pick 4, pick 5/6/7. these are not within one race,these are now across multiple races. so this gets prettycomplicated after a while. daily double is essentially, you'reare picking the winners of one race and then, the race right out, right? so two races,you're trying to pick the winner. pick three, you're trying to getthe winner in three sequential races.

pick four, four, and five,six, and seven, those are our kind of promotional type things thatwe do and it's very, very difficult. either that or people kind of dotheir own things sometimes right. they might [inaudible] and then three horses win the second race,right so they're in the best [inaudible] as well. so we talked about what all thesebets are, well how do you decide? how do you decide whatbet to make in general? well, you can do that with information.

you can do that with informationfrom a variety of sources and we'll talk about two ofthese as we go through. first up, morning line odds. so, morning line odds. at each race track,there's what's called an oddsmaker. let's remember. [inaudible] trying to getyour people [inaudible]. so they make this, they have this oddsmaker, basic [inaudible] to view stuff, trying to estimate odds andthings [inaudible] near the race itself.

a lot of people think odds makers are trying topredict the race itself. that is not the case. odds makers are trying to predict whatthe betting public will be doing, okay. they try to predict what at the veryend are those actually going to be? so, they're trying to follow alongwhat each are going to do, all right. >> that almost seems harder. [inaudible]>> yes. it's exactly that.

>> [laugh]>> right? because they couldn't probablybetter than anyone else, right? but that's not their task, their task istrying to figure out what are the actual at the end of the racebased on people betting. that is my by the way. >> [inaudible]>> yeah, all right. so how bout oz, right? so that's the track kindof provided information, there's also past performancesof the horses themselves.

when you go to a track you can buyan official program, you can also buy this the daily recent form, this has pastperformances on a lot of different horses. you can see here,there's a lot of information. basically, up here at the very topthis is the misinformation itself and that for each course it will havethe same kind of block of text and we'll talk about what all of these are. but one thing i want to look at right nowis each of these rows down below, right, this first one says 15 feb 10th. 15th of february 2010, they ran this race.

okay?and it tells you all the information about the times of the race,the race type, fractional positions, the weights of the jockey,the actual odds, a one off. and also what i thinkis kind of interesting, over here it actually tells you ofthe other horses that rant hat race. so a lot of people take stock into thefact that hey if this horse already beat this horse that it beat now, there mightbe like some horse psychology going on. >> [laugh]>> i don't know much about that quite honestly, but there is lotsof start thinking about here.

i'll share the link of wherethis presentation is at. the internet before, they actually have alittle animation that will go through and tell you all of that focusinformation are as well. from our investment friends,past performance is not [inaudible] turns, this is common in exam prospectus forgood investments, right. scc then says hey, you can get otherthings as well, so especially the age and size of the fund,the funds distant volatility and recent changes in the funds operation. so yeah, you're worried about the companyitself and how it's structured.

we're all worried about the horse,and it's fast right? so you're also concerned aboutthe people around this, right? who is the ceo of this company now, right? who is the trainer of this horse? one thing i look at to push a little bit. horses, i have seen anyway,something that's called performances. so i do need to get a little technical. this little column of numbershere starts off with 62, and then 84, 86, 93, 91, 89,

91, 101, 88, 80, and 94. these are with all the buyer's raceleaders in this race this horse. i guess in the 70's they establishedsome way to kind of average speeds irrespective of horse, race, cut type,a lot of other variables as well. so they had a weighted average ofall these things is this p number. you can see here, discover kind ofgoes up and it kind of goes down. right? after the 101 bar, the next racewas considerably lower, right? it was lower than almost any ofthe other races, or lower than what?

one, two, three,four previous races that he ran. so that's going to you see is that cycle during the performancesjust like any performance, right? race a really fast race one day, the nextday you might not be as fast, right? so this is a personal trend, thereare some analytics about all this stuff, you can find it online. but this is something ikind of look at for myself. ok, owner information,you want to know who this owner is, right? because they actually i own a lot ofgreat horses on, here for the drf anyway,

this paper, they don't have a wholelot of information about it but the actual program from the race trackitself they have more information. there's also the trainer themselves, that information can be foundup here in this little area. what's kind of interesting is that in theparentheses here they're telling you how many races has the horses forthis trainer started this, one, and then got second place andthird place and their overall percentage. the way this works is trackswill have different right equal. [inaudible] and over the speed you'll

kind of calculate the actual[inaudible] of the jockey as well. and over time okay you knowthe ratio is stable, right? [inaudible] jockey's performanceis important as well, you can see that over here. was the horse can carry a jockey,but a jockey can't carry a horse. so even if the donkey is great,if the horse is really about that the track and the race itself. so, this is richmond foundin this little area here. for the passable.

for the current rates this actually tells us all the informationabout the current race. the length of it, right,what type of race, ignitions for entering the race itself. a little out of the comfort zone,i don't want to get into it too much but also you know this isinformation about the race. what about the track condition itself,right? track conditions varyfrom what they call fast. these are the actual stuff reallyyou know is the ground really

kind of packed in right? is it looking like runningon it pretty quickly. is it wet right?is the course mud or is it a turf race? turf races in general havedifferent types of consideration. this also is called synthetic turf. there's been problems with thatwith some slipping on that terrain. trying to figure out ways to figureout ways to solve that issue. i don't [inaudible]there's also this. this is [inaudible] basically chariots.

[inaudible] this is a whole differentworld [inaudible] two, two and a half miles or so, anda little bit slower obviously, right? because they're pullingall of this [inaudible]. in general, legs range depends onwhat kind of horses you're racing. the problem is, is a lot of whatscalled fourth horse racing, for three hundred to four hundred yards. standard are between four furlongs. there's eight furlongs to a mile. and then theres also high stakes.

so the triple crown goes kentucky derby,preakness, then belmont city. belmont city is the longest of these, almost three to fourweeks to beat each other. that's really pushing it fora lot of these horses. and so the wind forit will count it as it was done recently. that's a pretty basic. i myself when i lived with new yorkevery year we would go and it was a really crazy experience. going to the belmont stakes.

you would have people who would bestooping looking for tickets and everything but then we would haveform it's past [inaudible] right. so it really does appear to haveselect really very cultural. there's also professional, so when i went to portland on the 31sti got this little pen cap from bob. and bob is one of the craps stewards thereand he releases his own little picks and what you should [inaudible] for each race. this kind of leads to some weird stuff,right? because everyone else alsohas this information.

so do you go with this expert,right? you go with everyone else andwhat they may be following? or do you kind of go the other way? there are also reading horses themselves,if you are around horses and you have a lot about there behavior what they looklike, or should look like, you can also kind of read them, there's two places youcan do that there is the paddock area. so before a race they'll actually onthe path, and all of the saddles, and get the jockey on. and that's usually right around that area.

there's also called the post-breed. so as they go out onto the track, we're going to move around andkind of get ready. if the horses are looking really slow andjumpy, you'll want to bet on those. if they're looking over-anxious,you know, sweating a lot. there's a lot to it. also how does the horse interactwith jockies as well right? i myself, i don't do this a lot. my wife on the other hand this is the wayshe really does this since her family has

had horses in the past, and soshe's really good about looking at and what horse. as of information,there is also this information. touting is kind of the general idea youare sharing this information to increase your payouts, right? this happens a lot betweenpeople whispering things on the track to a littlebit more involved scams. unfortunately i'm runninga little low on time so i'm not going to gothrough this whole scam.

i love scams like all that stuff likehow that happens, how that works. but basically i wanted tosay that someone sends a random selection of peoplethese different picks. they said each can right? before a race. after the race, one of thesegroups have to be right, right? one of these groups has to havethe winner, so then they kind of disregard these other people andstart anew, with the new race, right? they say hey look personwe sent you two picks in

a row that were correct never mindall the other people, [inaudible]. he owed money for that system. he worked really bigtechniques that are in square. this happened a lot during the 1920s,during the stock market, but it happens now, even more efficiently,because we don't have to worry about stamps and letters and more,just send an email, right? [inaudible] through drf or anywhere else. [inaudible] sobecause of this [inaudible] environment, and don't want to share thisyou have to get this for

me, i want you to pictureyour favorite spot. kayak and stuff. he's not telling you anything. whatever, like any of your people. if you kind of, you're around long enoughyou show up you may find his nelson. i myself i went to new york ijust like the environment. i just kind of moved around too muchdifferent homes close to anyone but it does how. so even if i pick a winner i'm stillnot guaranteed to be returned, right?

because i'm betting with the chomp i'mnot going to be getting a whole lot of money back out. that's the point. that's the whole thing. cash to the bets, can't use them withhorses, with psychology of people around us, we have to take all threeof these things into consideration. this is really what this is about. this leads to a very good, i don't know. personally, i kind of always justinvested in contrarian investing,

forgot there's one so i'll. >> [laugh]>> in fact [inaudible] psychologist plus, but i feel like as stated,a contrarian believes that certain behavior among investorscan lead into [inaudible]. for example, a lot of pessimism abouta stock can drive the prices so low that it overstatesthe company's risks. it understates its prospects for returningto it's profitablities, all right? i feel like that's whatwe're looking at here. we're trying to figure outwhat this [inaudible].

two things that i really follow. if a horses most recent racewas its fastest in general, i'm not going to bet on him, right? everyone else might believe, hey,that's a really fast horse, i'm going to. we saw before this trending fair, also ifa horse didn't finish its last race for whatever reason, sometimes horseswill literally go off the track and do whatever wants to do,you know, who knows. you don't really have a lot ofinformation about that so you pay okay, one who moderates.

yeah. [inaudible] okay, so this was so, that was a little dark. sorry. so this is what the screen lookslike when you're at a track or doing telecasting this weekend. you'll see here natural course numbers,numbers one through 13. usually this color is [inaudible] setting. this column are the odds forthe all right.

they're not an average even, it's through itself where people kindof take it as that. there is scratches horse a scratch. the main other thing i want toshare is the mtr is zero right now because the race is about to start. this is the mitsfer race and this particularly tells ushow much time we have left. there have been some studies done that sayabout 50% of all the bets in a race will happen in the last 15minutes up until the race.

so we have a weird situation here. so as time goes on closer to the race,we get more and more information about the player andwhat those look like. so, yeah, there's actual real incentive towait to the last minute to make you bet. >> look who's talkingis the product of two >> yeah. >> and we're off. he's coming from the outside, paraol'es there between horses androck solid golfer in the fourth spot.

[inaudible] closely racing in fifthalong the holidays, also on the hunt in phase two and now the green hornholidays going, so we'll try to sort out. it's only five blocks andside by side, alex is the. ten lines will cover that there'srock solid in front, rock solid ahead. >> when he refers to lengths,it's of a horse length that's [inaudible] you know [inaudible] blake will be using. [inaudible] how farsomeone is from the lead. what's going to happen here is thatthey're going to turn the track. and you can imagine if you havetwo circles of different radius.

one in the outside circle is going to needmore distance than the one on the inside. so there's a real kind of push toget everyone closer to the rail. are going the least amount of distance around. >> has moved to second outside. [inaudible] and that's the mojo ragging networkingfrom last. 23 and 4's open four. 47 and 1 with the half mile.

coming to the top of the stretchhome before the holidays, just narrowly on the outsideis look who's talking. at the rail, rock solid golfer,ring along the same base. ringo just patience just on. >> so now that they're swung out pastthe turn and the white house outside and now it's charged, kind of charged. >> and switching the day light to outside,someone out in the clear and now comes miranda road andvictor corsco and ringaro takes off,[inaudible] ringaro suddenly bursts away.

but look whose talking,but nalia is heading up to second and running hat trick, to win by 6 going away and its>> so, there is even more ofan analysis you can do. this is an example of what'scalled a stalker horse right? it's the wait around,kind of waited and waited, bided its time a little bit an then atthe very end kind of pushed forward. there's also a horse called fast stevewhich is where you try to get really far ahead of everyone and justkeep that up ahead of everyone obviously.

so yeah, there's a lot more differenttypes of analysis you can do with a lot of this stuff. you might want to ask the questionwell where can do this at? right down south, horton meadows is great. it's available to us. unfortunately there's only four librariescan say this during the weekends of this session. the mondays andtuesdays because they think a lot of tell. the big class so smaller classes that way.

there's also we'll talk about it more. if you are of age and don't minda seedier location, there's rialto's in downtown portland, and i noticed there'salso irish town public house here in vancouver, they havea terminal you can go to. if internet things are more your thing, there's also lots of [inaudible]as well. okay, i'm almost out of time, two morethings from me, one more thing from. first off, just remember the only ruleyou need when it comes to gambling you never bet on scared money, all right.

i want no one coming out herethinking i'll make lots of money and it'll be great. you will only get yourself in trouble. all right, so keep your red moneywhere it is don't pull it it out, you know follow me [inaudible]. i would also recommend the firsttime you go don't make a bet, don't actually do any gambling, you haveplenty of time to lose your money people. keep it to yourself for a little bit. and just enjoy the experience, right?

i really recommend going to the practicecell because that can be a lot of fun. it can also feel a little weird, right? you leave with people youmight not normally leave with. and so that's where jenna spring sayswhen you go into a new situation, watch what everyone else is doing, right? that's true for [inaudible] wego to a new place, we watch what everyone else is doing,all of their right? we might [inaudible] all right,that's it for me. >> [cough]>> yeah?

>> okay, so [inaudible] everybody has their own number>> for what is this? what does that tell us? is that a break from the past? >> yeah, so there's actually, my understanding is that thoseare actually the post debates, right? whatever. so one is on the inside of your house. i think it's basically a water systemof a submergence system as well.

>> [inaudible].>> it's yeah, there's some evidence to that. but yeah, you're right. you change every singe race. jockeys will finish with their race,each race during the day. different races as well. >> two things, one shout out to portlandmeadows, it was fun library seeing day. and not that sketchy. >> no.>> but it used to be sketchier.

they've worked hard. they have a nice garden now. you'll find people thatyou normally see in. >> books.>> but my question is, you talked about this, like somehow the public is under betting the show. >> yeah.>> i wonder where you find those odds? i've only ever seen the odds rightnow that are the [inaudible] odds. >> right.

so yeah this is definitely notreally public information. this is for real, right? they will cycle through the rules andstuff. try to show those as they go on. if you really want that information,what you actually have to do, and there's two ways of doing that. one, there's usually a terminal stationyou can rent at every tribe location- >> [crosstalk] what those guys were doing. >> exactly, yeah.

those guys were sitting therewith the little screens, right? they are [inaudible] that little spot. >> [inaudible] and they're getting a lotof other information that you may not. also, some places may havelike an [inaudible] something. [inaudible] actually pull the data from,as well. and see what the actual are. yeah, so. [inaudible], right? [inaudible] all right, yeah?

>> what is the difference between [inaudible]>> [laugh] what is there to say? he's great, he's awesome. i said to you the perfectcombination of right, like kind of push people around andsmack them around, but like he knows enough to be culturedand how to behave around certain. >> [laugh]>> all right everybody, thank you all for coming.

i appreciate it. >> [applause]>> thank you everyone. cover your weekends. i look forward to seeing you ondecember 4th for the summer series. and then look for,in winter quarter, [inaudible]. the winter quarter, and i think that itwill be kind of [inaudible] some more ideas for the [inaudible] as well. and i'll be looking forother people as well. thank you again.